The Force Awakens… Logic v. Ambition

Note: While I cannot wait to breakdown the expectations of Star Wars: The Force Awakens efforts in becoming the number one film of all time, I would first like to note that while I have indeed seen all six of the current Star Wars films, I am not completely familiar with all current Star Wars canon. The thoughts and observations of this blog are my own, and will hopefully provide the most information to those who choose to read this; Written by somebody who is completely unbiased towards this particular universe…

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away…

Yeah, I’m not a huge Star Wars guy. However, make no mistake, I will be losing my shit (as well as every other person in my screening) when that opening fanfare and crawl begins. My screening is on the eighteenth of December, and aside from my anticipation for other films such as Creed and The Revenant… I cannot wait for this film!

So, the big conversation that we all are having (and some are even hoping)… WILL THE FORCE AWAKENS BEAT OUT AVATAR FOR THE NUMBER ONE FILM OF ALL TIME?!

First off, lets look at what Avatar had going for itself back in 2009, allowing it to become the current holder of the thrown…

Number one: A James Cameron film. This is the same man who gave us films like The Terminator, Aliens, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, and True Lies. However, his glaring achievement was perhaps the previous record holder of the number one film of all time, 1997’s Titanic. Essentially, he was the 1990’s Christopher Nolan, who just couldn’t seem to pump out a stinker. So, the anticipation for his first new film in over twelve years was a big factor.

Number two: The special effects. This film was advertised as a technological breakthrough in the world of three-dimension filmmaking. In the early 2000’s, animated films began taking advantage of the increased advancements in 3d, allowing ticket sales to increase by a small margin, and adding an extra “incentive” to seeing a film at the theatre. Perhaps explaining why this took seven years to make (and why the Avatar sequels are taking even longer), Avatar was sold as a “Technological Masterpiece”. Even if you didn’t care for the substance of the film, you cannot deny it’s massive appeal as far as visuals, sounds, and soundtrack. The film was beautiful to watch.

Number three: The film became an “event”. A film always hopes for successful opening weekend numbers; however, that’s not always guaranteed. So, what a studio next hopes for, is a slow downward trajectory; meaning that the income of the film falls no more than the average 40% for the following week. Yet, what made Avatar so successful was it’s “legs”. The film did not have stellar opening weekend numbers, but by week three, the word of mouth grew, and repeat screening’s began to grow. Seeing Avatar was like going to a concert! Alongside it’s weeks upon weeks of success, we also have to consider the films competition. With no Twilight, Harry Potter, or James Bond films opening that month, the film had an initial interest by a large audience. Once the film carried into the new year, it was allowed to coast through January and February, a time when studios often dump their “crap” films in order to make back some of the money they wasted on the project.

Number four: The film had no target audience… Everyone could find something about it to enjoy.

So, as The Force Awakens approach’s, let’s configure the films chances to overtake Avatar…

The first MAJOR thing to consider is it’s amazing pre-sale campaign. Do you know what the previous record holder was for pre-sold tickets? The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part 1. THE FORCE AWAKENS DID EIGHT TIMES THAT ON IT’S FIRST DAY! So much that Disney and Lucasfilm rented out every IMAX screen for en entire month! So, still a month away from release, the film has already gathered quite a profit.

The second thing to consider is it’s competition. Mockingjay part 2 will have already been in theatres for a month, Spectre will have diminished, and there are no new Hobbit films. The Force Awakens can essentially coast until the March release of Warner Brothers Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice. That’s three months of potential probable box office dominance. Even with all the business of the holidays, the film will still make truckloads of profit in the winter months.

Remember, what makes a film a top ten potential film isn’t simply allocated to a strong opening weekend; It’s the hope that a majority of the films audience will go back to see it again, and again, and again. This film should not have that issue…

Finally, and most importantly, it’s Star Wars.

Three generations of Star Wars currently roam the planet. It’s parents and grandparents showing their children and grandchildren the original trilogy. The trilogy presents perhaps that worlds most well known “on screen” antagonist in Darth Vader. You have one of the most iconic fictional weapons in the light Saber. You have unforgettable characters that resonate across the world with Han Solo, Luke, Leia, Chewbacca, C-3Po, R2-D2, Lando, etc. THERE IS EVEN A STAR WARS BASED RELIGION!

Normally, when it comes to the success of a sequel, the formula usually goes as the following: If the previous movie was GREAT, then it’s successor will produce an even greater profit, because of the built in anticipation. A great example of this would be the major success of The Dark Knight Rises. Because The Dark Knight was so good, and we were given a four year period to wait for a follow up, the excitement for a new Nolan Batman film was elevated tremendously.

So, with the Star Wars prequels being generally poorly received, will this interfere with the success of the new film?

I highly doubt it. Not only has enough time passed between The Revenge of the Sith and The Force Awakens, but the faith and trust amongst the fan base towards Disney and JJ Abrams is so passionate, and so optimistic (deservingly), that I believe the fear of George Lucas interfering has well been dissolved (Also, contractually… He because can’t).

The only thing preventing this film from being number one all time is two things:

1. There is a major east coast storm which prevents people from attending the film.
2. The film sucks… and nobody wants to see it after an initial screening.

However, based on Disney’s and JJ’s marketing campaign, leaving only three trailers for watching in the span of one full calendar year, AND the fact that they have hidden any and all plot details, along with actual shots of Luke Skywalker, I think it is safe to say that they are extremely confident in the film they have produced.

So, will Star Wars: The Force Awakens become the highest grossing film of all time?!

…Yes!

And, if the film is GREAT, then it will only help Episode VII’s chances in December, 2017 of toppling the franchises own record.

Don’t forget…there is a certain vigilante and alien lurking in the dark shadows of March, waiting to share the cinematic screen together for their very first time…